Friday, April 29, 2011

Now Appearing More Likely That "Surge" Will Split the Vote

I'm still having difficulty figuring out what's going on here with this NDP "surge" and pollsters waiting for the "wave".

Nanos continues to show a very high margin of error in their regional polling from 5.6 to 10.1.

And those who go riding by riding are not seeing many seats that the NDP can actually take. And in many cases the NDP candidate is so weak that if they did win, they would be merely occupying a seat and collecting a fat paycheque for it. Not unlike most Conservatives.

At a debate on Wednesday, one NDP candidate, when asked, knew little of the party platform, and he doesn't even have his own signs. Only put up Jack Layton signs. Does he really believe that the people in this town are going to vote for him? Stranger things have happened I know, but.

And in the many ridings where the Liberals and Conservatives have been neck and neck, I think this "surge" could just split the vote and assure a Conservative win.

I know that's what Harper is hoping for.

They said that in an unguarded moment this week, Harper, when looking out over Niagara Falls said "waiting for the wave" with a half smile. Is he seeing the Reform Party in 1993, whose unofficial motto (and the title of a Tom Flanagan book) was "waiting for the wave".

When they hit the Hill, many reporters asked "who are these yokels and who voted for them?" And in government many of us are still asking the same thing.

Their success came only because of a broad discontent with Brian Mulroney's Conservatives, who only took 2 seats that year, and eventually faded into oblivion, being swallowed up by the Reform-Alliance.

Does he feel that he may face a similar fate? Not likely.

According to the Hill Times there are 95 hotly contested ridings. Most are hotly contested Conservative/Liberal. I'm fearing that a last minute movement to the NDP by the confused and those caught up in the hype, may give Harper his majority, or at least another minority. Then it won't matter who is in opposition.

The Conservatives will come out meaner than ever, saying "see we told you the election was a waste of time".



  1. agree emily, i feel the strategic voting was not something NDPers were open to..i just got a mtch in Votepair with someone in the kitchener ont i feel a little better but i am discouraged overall.

  2. I'M trying to find someone to vote Green for me in Saanich-Gulf (E. May). I checked the 2008 results here (NDG-Lachine), it is useless (sorry Jessica!). I'm going to vote Liberal (vote swap). Twice I have been told Marlene Jennings is in trouble in NDG-Lachine, I still don't believe it but I am taking no chances! She has been elected FIVE times here!

    I think I am going to go to bed VERY late on Monday! I can take my minicomputer to bed if I am too tired...