Dancing Around the Polls Will Only Make You Dizzy

The news this week was of two recently published polls. One was conducted by Forum Research and the other by Mainstreet Research; with completely different results.

Forum shows some drop in support for the NDP but has them forming a minority government. Mainstreet, on the other hand, shows a huge surge by the Conservatives, with them in majority territory, and too close to call for the opposition.

Tracking social media, comments are all over the place, depending on your political drug of choice.

Let's look at the Mainstreet Poll to the right, which has become a real bone of contention.

Liberal supporters are happy that they are gaining on the NDP, but naturally terrified that Harper could get another majority.

NDP supporters, understandably, are in a complete tither.

While they fed off the euphoria of polls conducted prior to this, they are now up in arms, attacking Postmedia and the little known firm Mainstreet.

Some say it's run by a Liberal, others say a Conservative.

Over on Rabble, David Climenhaga is blaming Postmedia, even going so far as to ask why they only published the results of one poll.

It's nonsense of course, because they commissioned the poll, and most newspapers only publish the poll they paid for, when they commission it. An opinion piece might delve into more.

Since the boost to the Conservatives is being attributed to the Universal Child Care cheques that went out this week, Climenhaga also finds this to be bogus.

... on Monday and Tuesday when the poll was taken, virtually no parent in Canada had received their Universal Child Care Benefit cheque. The first ones started showing up in mailboxes in most parts of Canada on Wednesday. I'm just saying.

He might be right about when the cheques appeared in mailboxes, but notifications showing the amount you would receive, were sent out the week before.  Also, many if not most, were direct deposit  My grandson's was in the bank on the 20th.

If we question Postmedia's poll, it would be why they wanted it conducted on the day and day after, the windfall, before the revelations that it's not such a windfall after all.

Besides, those cheques won't drive people to the polls on election day, the only polls that really matter.

So Who and What is Mainstreet Research?

Back to the NDP accusations that it is run by a Liberal or a Conservative.  I visited my friend Mr. Google, and it would appear that they are neither.

Besides conducting polls, they work on campaigns, mostly at the municipal level.

They have been advisers to the Alberta Conservative Party and ran the campaigns of at least two Liberals. They wrote favorably of Rachel Notley, and predicted her majority four days before the Alberta election. They were also the first to suggest that she had won the leaders debate.

As to being right-wing, they have several unions as clients, instructing them on how to get their message out and how to become more political.

What other polls do show this week, is that the Liberals are holding or gaining ground, and NDP support is dropping, with divided gains.

I read them for amusement but the only pollsters I trust are Wiarton Willie and Shubenacadie Sam, who by the way also had conflicting predictions this year.  Sammy won.

Although I did hear a rumour that Willie was a CPC operative and Sam once worked for Jean Chretien.

I'm just saying .....

Could Alf Landon Save Canada? I Know. Alf Who?

"Of all the preposterous assumptions of humanity over humanity, nothing exceeds most of the criticisms made on the habits of the poor by the well-housed, well-warmed, and well-fed." - Herman Melville

The Literary digest was a weekly magazine, that had for decades, predicted the results of the American presidential elections, often within a percentage point.

They did this with mail-in polling.

But in 1936, they couldn't have been more wrong, when they determined that the Republican Governor of Kansas, Alf Landon, would beat out Democratic President Franklin Roosevelt.

And they said that Roosevelt would lose, 56 percent to 44 percent.

But when the votes were tallied, Roosevelt would win with the largest landslide in U.S. history. The Republicans took just two states.

So how did they get it so wrong?

Literary Digest used as their mailing list, the telephone directory and auto registrations. But it was during the Depression when few could afford telephones or cars.

And since traditionally, Republican supporters are more affluent, this meant that they had ignored the poor.

Landon ran on a platform of reducing government spending, at a time when more intervention was required to alleviate the enormous suffering.

Gallup to the Rescue

But one upstart agency, also conducting opinion polls was spot on. They actually predicted the Roosevelt landslide.

Here was a bluff, brash Princeton-based pollster named George Gallup, who had been in business only since 1935 -- and he was predicting FDR in a walk. Gallup called his polling company the American Institute of Public Opinion and billed the Gallup Poll as a reliable index of the voters' mood. Much of the political establishment just laughed at him. After all, his "Institute" was just a tiny office above the Woolworth's on Nassau Street.Gallup, though, had the last laugh. (1)

George Gallup would change the way that polls were conducted, by using the same techniques employed when marketing a product.

Gallup would conduct biweekly polls of a sample of perhaps 2,000 people -- each one chosen, in the time-tested manner of market research, to represent a larger group, including all classes, races and regions. (1)

And the reliability of this method has stood firm for more than seven decades.

But is it now the most reliable?

In the same way that Literary ignored the poor, these polls are conducted using landline phones, at a time when cell phones and the Internet are the most common vehicles of communication.

Some polling firms are conducting on-line polls, but only for those already politically engaged, who seek them out.

This method ignores the opinions of the young and the growing number of tech savvy citizens.

Is it time for a new George Gallup? Someone who really has a hand on the pulse of the nation?

The Problem With Polls

In their book Newsmongers, Mary Anne Comber and Robert S. Mayne, devote a chapter (2) to Opinion Polling, especially during an election campaign.

The polls become the story, and the media base their headlines on the daily data. As a result, they often ignore the platforms and policies of the parties. The things we should be paying attention to.

And since opinion polls are attitudinal, trivial things can create glitches. But once the headline is written, it has the capacity to alter the mood.

They can also determine whether or not a person goes out to vote. If the polls predict that their candidate has an enormous lead, they may feel comfortable enough to stay home. On the other hand, if they are on the bottom, the prospective voter may say why bother?

So in many ways they are undemocratic, because only when the vast majority of the electorate show up on election day, can we get proper representation.

Jean Chretien and Sinclair Stevens, both tried to put a stop to polling during this time, but to no avail. (2)

However, I see problems with polling even outside of an election campaign. The media is already predicting another minority for Stephen Harper, despite the fact that we have not had the benefit of an election. Campaign ads are a huge contributing factor, as are debates, in determining winners and losers. But before any of that has taken place, we are told that they will be useless.

The media has held their own election and we were not invited. Or at least only 2,000 of us were invited.

They have become odds makers. Those gurus who try to determine the outcome of a sporting event, using scientific data, like injuries, personal lives, etc. But does that mean that you don't still want to watch the game?

A lot can happen and often does.

How We Can Defy the Polls

The media and several pollsters have had a few upsets recently. They thought that Stephen Harper would bounce back from the 10 point drop suffered as a result of his second self-serving prorogation, because of his handling of the Haiti Crisis.

But that didn't happen, which says a lot for the character of Canadians, seeing as how we now know, just what his sudden interest in Haiti was really about. We would have looked rather foolish.

And the media got it wrong when they predicted that the Facebook group Canadians Against Proroguing Parliament would not have an effect on Harper's fortunes. Yet we were the ones who caused his drop in the polls.

We also were behind the rallies against the suspending of our democracy.

And we can do that again. We can defy those know-it-alls who believe they have the answers. Who are too lazy to talk to Canadians, but instead talk down to us.

They can no longer ignore the poor, the young, the unemployed. Because even for those not poor, young or unemployed, they care.

We're tired of the affluent having all the say and garnering all the attention. There is the potential for an upset.

Let's make it happen. If you really want to upset a Neocon ... VOTE! And if you want to upset the pollsters .... PROVE THEM WRONG!

Sources:

1. The poll that took America's pulse, By Jon Blackwell, The Trentonian

2. The Newsmongers: How the Media Distort the Political News, By Mary Anne Comber and Robert S. Mayne, John Deyell Printing, 1986, ISBN: 0-7710-2239-5, Pg. 63-74

More Bad News Polls For Stephen Harper

As the Conservatives are spinning out of control, the Liberals and the rest of the opposition are spiralling upward.

CAPP played a huge roll in this, whether the 'kingmaker' media wants to admit it or not.

The latest EKOS showed that if an election were held now the Liberals would have 122 seats, while the Conservatives just 110.

But two other polls reveal something perhaps more damaging. Public opinion is shifting away from the Conservative talking points, as it would appear that Canadians are finally waking up. Dare we dream?

This country has taken a sharp right turn, but Canadians Against Proroguing Parliament will swing it back, one vote at a time.

Prime Minister's Senate appointments seen as hypocritical, poll finds
February 5, 2010
Richard J. Brennan Ottawa Bureau

OTTAWA–Two-thirds of Canadians believe Prime Minister Stephen Harper is a hypocrite for appointing five new senators, a new Angus Reid poll says.

Despite Harper's longtime promise not to appoint senators, but rather to focus on Senate reform, there are now 33 Harper appointees in the upper chamber. Last month's appointments give the Conservatives control of the Senate.

The survey released Thursday found 65 per cent of respondents see the appointments as hypocritical.

Canadians see prorogation as extended vacation: Poll
The Canadian Press
February 5, 2010

OTTAWA — A recent poll suggests Canadians weren't buying Prime Minister Stephen Harper's contention that his government is working hard despite the suspension of Parliament. (Photo-ops at the Olympics won't help this perception)

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates 39 per cent of respondents believed the government had been not at all active or hardworking since Harper prorogued Parliament, which is not due back until March 3

That's more than triple the 12 per cent who said the government has been very active and hardworking. Another 37 per cent said the government has been somewhat active. The findings suggest Harper has not been able to quell public opposition to prorogation despite a flurry of news conferences, briefings, interviews, announcements and pre-budget consultations aimed at showing the government hard at work.

We Will Take This Country Back One Vote at a Time

They say that votes are the currency on the Hill and Stephen Harper is now overdrawn. The Canadian public, with the help of Canadians Against Proroguing Parliament, will be taking our country back, thank you very much.

This one man show is about to come to an end very soon, and while Harper has been running around, pretending to give a damn about someone other than himself, we're not buying it.

There has been a structural shift in voting intentions, and we are finally starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Mr. Harper, I might suggest that you starting practicing "Would you like fries with that?", because you are about to enter the unemployment line.

February 4, 2010
Liberals see 'structural shift' in their favour
Jane Taber

Welcome to the 'new normal.' A new national opinion poll putting the Liberals neck and neck with the Conservatives for the third consecutive week has its author saying talk of a spring election will start bubbling as the opposition parties say to themselves, “maybe we can get rid of this guy now.”

Latest Polls Reveal That Harper Underestimated Canadians

A new EKOS poll reveals that the Liberals and Conservatives are now tied. I was a little upset though when they suggested it was "despite Prime Minister Stephen Harper's swift response to the Haiti quake".

Those are OUR ships and OUR helicopters. It is also OUR money. Why would we trade OUR democracy for OUR response to the earthquake?

This is still the government of Canada, even if we are now ruled by a ruthless dictator.

If anything the Haiti tragedy is all the more reason why we must fight for our democracy. They are so poor because theirs was taken away.

Liberals, Conservatives in virtual tie
January 21, 2010
CBC News

The Liberals and Conservatives are in a virtual tie with voters, says an EKOS poll. The Liberals have regained some support among voters and are now in a virtual tie with the Conservatives despite Prime Minister Stephen Harper's swift response to the Haiti quake, an EKOS poll suggests.

It marks the first time the Liberals have drawn so close to the governing party since late summer. Asked which party they would support if an election were held tomorrow, 30.9 per cent of those polled chose the Liberals and 31.5 per cent backed the Conservatives ....

Conservatives Down Two More Points in Polls Narrowing Lead to Six Points

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima, indicates support for the Conservatives stands at 34 per cent nationally, compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals, 14 for the NDP and 13 for the Greens.

Will we see a new round of attack ads this Christmas? Parliament prorogued? Anything is possible with the Reformers.

There is also another interesting set of numbers, Tracking Harper's self-promotion on the taxpayers' dime: Harper's self-obsession with referencing government as being all about him has escalated! In the time that I've been monitoring the use of the phrase "The Harper Government" on the non-partisan domain gc.ca, the count has moved from 8990 in early October to 11300 today.

Chantel Hebert sums it up nicely, indicating that Stephen Harper is his own worst enemy.

Hébert: Harper Tories are own worst enemies
By Chantal Hébert National Columnist
December 16, 2009

Only a few weeks ago, Stephen Harper was headed for a triumphant year end.

His minority government had never looked further removed from the brink in the House of Commons. As the Conservatives built a solid lead in voting intentions over the fall months, the election clouds on their horizon dissipated.

A by-election victory at the expense of the Bloc Québécois last month showed that there might just be a second life for the Prime Minister in Quebec.

Through it all, Harper's ratings soared over those of his main challenger in the polls.

Then the Afghan detainee issue and the climate-change debate came back to the fore, bringing the Conservative party's fall excursion into majority territory to an end.

There are temporary setbacks in the life of every government. Those go with the territory.

But both end-of-year controversies involve defining policies that have spelled trouble for Harper in the past.

Since the Conservatives first came to power, they have mostly been preoccupied by three major files: climate change, the Afghan deployment and, more recently, the recession.

Taken together, they make up a pattern that shows the Conservatives doing best politically when they govern with (and like) the Liberals and worst when they follow their own counsel.

Take the handling of the recession: It could be argued that it is hard to make enemies by doling out billions of public dollars. But producing an economic plan to which the Liberals could not come up with a comprehensive alternative really made a political difference this year.

Despite the recession, the economy never really emerged as a wedge issue this past year, even after the Liberals tired of supporting the government.

In the case of the Afghan deployment, no amount of Liberal support could have turned an unpopular war into an asset for the Conservatives. But it did neutralize the issue, buying Harper enough cover to avoid being penalized for it in the ballot box in the last election.

Over the past few weeks, the government has broken out of that cover, isolating itself from its official opposition ally in the Afghan endeavour, the media and the diplomatic community with a short-sighted shoot-the-messenger approach to the detainee issue. In so doing, the Conservatives only ran up a credibility deficit in the polls.

The growing gap between Canadian public opinion and the Conservatives on Afghanistan is barely a hairline crack compared with the gulf between the government and voters on climate change, an issue on which Harper's course can truly be called his very own.

It emerged early on as the Achilles heel of the Conservative government and it remains so to this day.

In Copenhagen this week, Canada is incurring one of its worst international beatings ever. The federal-provincial divisions that the government declined to address at home are also on full display, raising questions as to Harper's management of the federation.

At year's end, environment and defence ministers Jim Prentice and Peter MacKay are the walking wounded of the cabinet. As the two leading voices of the former Progressive Conservative party within the government, they are anything but disposable.

For the first time, serious ministerial damage extends deep inside the first tier of Harper's cabinet. At the same time, the bills the government ran up to deal with the recession are about to come in.

The latest Liberal thinking on election timing involves allowing more time for Conservative chickens to come home to roost. Making a virtue of the necessity of patience may yet pay off for the opposition.

Views on Harperland: Politics of Control

From the book review:

In his latest release, Harperland, Lawrence turns his penetrating scrutiny on our current Prime Minister. Focusing on the growth of executive power under Harper and drawing on interviews with prominent insiders, he probes the smearing of opponents, the silencing of the public and diplomatic service, the secrecy, the prorogations, the unprecedented centralizing of power, and the attempted muzzling of the media. He examines the controversies—and lets readers draw their own conclusions. Tough but balanced, Harperland offers a clear picture of a skilled politician at a crucial point in Canadian politics.

Sharing some thoughts on the book itself and elaborating on the theme.

You have to give Lawrence Kudos, that he was able to pry this much information from the most secretive government in our history.

I agree with the review to a certain extent and love Lawrence Martin as a journalist and author.

The book is a must read for every Canadian.

Continuation:

The Politics of Contempt: The Nixon-Harper Ticket

The Politics of Hate: Where Will it Lead?

The Politics of Conceit: "Anything You Can Do I Can Do Better"

The Politics of Opportunity: Election Tampering

The Politics of Insecurity: Diplomacy and Clinking Glasses

The Politics of Jabberwocky: As Canada Plummets Down the Rabbit Hole

The Politics of Ballyhoo: David Emerson and the Soft on Sovereignty Trade Deal

The Politics of Religious Nationalism: Taking us Down a Dangerous Path

The Politics of Sucking Up: Handling the Quebec Question

The Politics of Exploitation: The Haiti Crisis Revisted

The Politics of Fear Mongering: The Subtext is Muslim

The Politics of Authoritarianism: "I've Never Seen Anything Like It"

The Politics of Interference: What Really Happened With the Obama Campaign?

Omar Khadr: With All Due Respect. Canadians do Care. We Just Don't Know It

Israel Must Adhere to the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty

Why the Conservatives Should be Discouraged by Latest Poll Numbers

The latest poll numbers have the Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat, but is this good news for Stephen Harper?

This was his summer. He's gone around announcing and re-announcing projects, being photographed everywhere; and except for a few missteps and his abysmal performance at the Three Amigos summit, hasn't looked that bad.

So why aren't his numbers higher? Why is he one point down from Michael Ignatieff, who has had a lot of bad press, with the media implying that he's been loafing at the cottage?

Liberal Senator Warren Kinsella digs a little deeper on his blog. For Stephen Harper's summer tour, ticket sales were just not what they should have been.

A SUMMERTIME OPEN LETTER TO LIBERALS
Warren Kinsella
August 24, 2009

It's Summer. There isn't a lot of stuff to write about, politically, so you tend to get a lot of Summertime speculative stories by anonymous "senior strategists" who are neither senior nor strategic. It's a Summertime, North-of-the-Queensway thing.

Here's ten things you already know, but I'll point out anyhow. You're welcome.

1. Prime Ministers, being Prime Ministers, always get more media coverage than Opposition leaders. Always.

2. Governments - who have power and therefore actual money to hand out, and ribbons to cut - always get more media coverage than anyone else does. Always.

3. For an Opposition leader or Opposition party in the Summertime, that stuff gets even worse. National political coverage drops off dramatically and, with it, what little national media coverage you were getting.

4. If you are an Opposition party that wants to get lots of coverage for something, you can devote a ton of resources to putting together a big event. And then, the very same media pundits who have been criticizing you for being "invisible" will criticize you for putting together a big event in the Summertime, when "no one is paying attention."

5. Incumbents go up in the polls when legislatures aren't sitting. That's why Reformatory trained seals are so eager to get the Hell out of Ottawa all the time. Question Period is good for the Opposition, but not for governments.

6. Smart Opposition leaders use the Summer before a possible election to quietly get ready - their team, their policies, their bank account, their election readiness, themselves.

7. Smart Opposition leaders don't worry about getting in the paper a lot in the Summertime, because they also know that the last thing Joe and Jane Frontporch want is a politician getting in their face in barbecue season.

8. Opposition leaders who are months away from becoming Prime Ministers go to regional media markets in the Summer - to road test their team, their policies and themselves. Ask Mulroney (Summer '84), Chrétien (Summer '93), Harper (Summer '05); they all did the same thing, and it kind of worked out for them, didn't it? The Ottawa media will complain, but that's because it's Summertime and they're hot and bored.

9. Saying a guy has no policies - when that guy has written nearly 20 acclaimed policy books - is stupid. Saying a guy is "invisible" - when he has literally had four times as many events and activities as his main opponent - is stupid. Saying a guy isn't election-ready - when he's out-fundraising a sitting government, when he has united his party and made it competitive, when he has attracted advisers who know how to win (from équipe Charest and Team McGuinty and elsewhere) - is stupid. It's all stupid.

10. As the great Romeo LeBlanc used to say: when hunting bear, don't get distracted by rabbit tracks. Keep hunting bear, Liberals.

Harper's Witch Hunt Ties Tories to the Stake

Stephen Harper once made the claim: "This party will not take its position based on public opinion polls. We will not take a stand based on focus groups. We will not take a stand based on phone-in shows or householder surveys or any other vagaries of pubic opinion."

It's fun to go back a few years when blogging, to see how present day actions relate. Harper's hyper-partisanship is certainly nothing new and neither is the vindictive cruel side of his nature that made him such a hit with the National Citizens Coalition.

The Sponsorship Scandal helped to bring him to power, with promises of cleaning up government, that proved to be more of a PR gimmick than any actual attempt to clean up government.

But back in the day, when he was still riding his high horse, he decided to use taxpayers money to see if he could dig up more dirt on the Liberals, knowing that he couldn't ride Adscam forever.

Besides, when the path was leading straight back to Brian Mulroney, whose patronage appointments and maneuvering of Conservative friendly ad agencies, set the stage for the scandal, he thought it best to end there.

So instead he decided to see if he could find a story on the Grit's use of opinion polls, only to discover that his own government was spending more on opinion polls than any before it. Oops!

Probe into Liberal polling dings Tories instead

OTTAWA -- An independent investigator hired by the Harper government to look into past Liberal polling practices has wound up shining an unfavourable light on the Tories' penchant for polling. Daniel Paille notes that the Conservative government commissioned more than two polls per business day in the past year, a figure he calls "quite astounding.''

His report shows that the government spent $31.2 million on opinion research in the last year -- more than any previous year and almost twice the $18 million spent on average during the Liberal years ....

IS THIS REALLY CONSERVATIVE? IS STEPHEN HARPER REALLY THE BEST CHOICE FOR CANADA?

Ignatieff Lays the Smack Down

After much anticipation, Michael Ignatieff was officially named leader of the Liberal Party and the next Prime Minister of Canada (OK I threw that one in)

I listened to his speech and when it came to throwing down the gauntlet, he looked into the camera at Stephen Harper, who he knew was watching, and let him know that he had failed.

The Conservatives' battles with the Canadian people had divided this country, and he would no longer allow that to happen.

'Mr. Harper, you have failed us'

New Grit boss drops gauntlet
By Juliet O'Neill,
Calgary Herald
May 3, 2009

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff accused Prime Minister Stephen Harper on Saturday of failing in his main job of uniting the country.

Freshly confirmed as Liberal leader at a national party convention, Ignatieff immediately cast himself and the Grits as a unifying force, and accused Harper of playing regions and groups against one another.

"Mr. Harper, you have failed us,"Ignatieff told 2,000 (It was actually 3000) cheering supporters at the Liberal national convention in Vancouver. "If you can't unite Canadians, if you can't appeal to the best in all of us, we can."

Harper's spokesman immediately dismissed his assertion, claiming national unity has climbed to its highest level in a generation (what planning was he living on?) since the Conservatives took office, and noting Ignatieff was living in Britain during the 1980 and 1995 referendums on Quebec independence.

Ignatieff, who was acclaimed interim Liberal leader in December, received 97 per cent of 2,023 votes cast to confirm his uncontested leadership at the three-day convention.
Recalling the turmoil last winter when Harper convinced the Governor General to suspend Parliament rather than face defeat, Ignatieff addressed Harper directly.

"For three years you have played province against province, group against group, region against region, individual against individual," he said. "When your power was threatened last November, you unleashed a national unity crisis and you saved yourself only by sending Parliament home.

"You have failed to understand that a prime minister has one job and one job only, which is to unite the people in this country. Mr. Harper, you have failed us. If you can't unite Canadians, if you can't appeal to the best in us, we can. We Liberals can build a federalism based on cooperation, not on confrontation."

Ignatieff also pledged the Liberals could lead Canada from the recession back to prosperity, and characterized a Liberal proposal to eliminate regional differences in employment-insurance eligibility rules as a measure "to unite our people."

"If we offer our fellow citizens a message of hope, I believe Canadians will ask us to form the next government of Canada,"he declared. "When they do, all our efforts will be focused on one task: to unite our people again."

His speech capped a three-day convention at which Liberals displayed internal unity and focused on rebuilding the party that has been rising in the polls, but needs to build membership and funds.

"We are here to rededicate ourselves to the central task of our party: to offer our people the uniting vision that will inspire us all to better days," Ignatieff declared. "Our country is our cause."

When it was over, they unveiled a new party logo of a red maple leaf to "symbolize a re-energized Liberal party emerging from a process of renewal engaging all Liberal members."
Convention delegates cheered loudest during a slide-show introduction, when Ignatieff was shown with U. S. President Barack Obama.

Toronto MP Bob Rae, who halted his own leadership campaign so that Ignatieff would have no competition, said his former rival has his full support.

"I've learned that what shoulda, coulda, woulda been is not a helpful emotional track to be on," Rae said in an interview. "And I'm OK, I'm happy with the way things have worked out."
He said the convention displayed "a strong sense that whatever arguments the party may have had in the past, divisions and personality clashes and so on are all behind us."

Party director Rocco Rossi said there would be no finger-pointing about leadership allegiances as there usually are in the Liberal party.

"For the first time in my life as a Liberal, we come into a convention united and we go out united," he said.

Stephen Harper's Government has become an embarrassment and Jason Kenney is still trying to destroy not only our reputation on the world stage, but the reputation of Canadian citizens.