Thursday, April 21, 2011

So Will Jack Layton Give Harper a Majority or a Minority?

When Jack Layton told the Star the other day that he was going to change his strategy and start attacking Michael Ignatieff, I knew we were toast. And while Allan Gregg is telling us to ignore the polls, it's not hard to see that what Layton has done is split the vote, guaranteeing a Harper victory.

All our work may have been for nothing.

As Tobi Kohen says: Divided, Harper stands: how the left-wing split could return the Conservatives to power.
As NDP support continues to rise in the polls, will the left-wing vote splitting phenomenon be a serious game changer and prove to be a boon for the Tories in their quest for a majority?

While it's not unusual for the New Democrats to experience a surge during a campaign — Jack Layton often outperforms his competitors in the English-language debate, resulting in a spike — experts say it usually peters out come election day.
Let's hope they're right.

If Layton's rise was at the cost of Conservative support, I'd be thrilled. But it's not. I'm feeling so discouraged right now. But I'll get over it.

Determined to fight until the end.


  1. I know how you feel, Emily. I am so disappointed in Jack Layton, I could just cry, but I'll get over it, too. I just hope Canada can recover.


    Fake Left, Go Right
    An insider’s take on Jack Layton’s game of chance

  3. Interesting. Thanks Line. I'd never read that before.

  4. Too bad Emily that through data it showed that it was "blue Liberals" in 10 key ridings in Ontario who gave Harper his majority. Check pundit's guide for that data for 2011. It shows how those voters went blue from red.