Harper Majority May be Out of Reach But Let's Not Celebrate Yet

Conservative insiders now feeling like a majority is out of reach.

High-ranking sources confide that even with the collapse of Michael Ignatieff's Liberals — and NDP Leader Jack Layton's surge, which helps split the vote in many Ontario ridings — it will be very difficult to make such immense gains in Canada's most populous province.

At the dissolution of Parliament, the minority Tories held 51 of Ontario's 106 federal seats. Party sources say the possible loss of several British Columbia ridings to the New Democrats — and others in Quebec, where Layton is surfing an orange wave — has forced them to revise their projections.

As of Thursday, they said they needed to win at least 74 seats in Ontario to achieve a majority. “It all comes down to Ontario and we're just not there,” a source said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the party's internal polling is closely guarded. Another source confirmed the Tories' data echoes publicly available polls, such as Wednesday's Toronto Star-Angus Reid survey showing the Conservatives at 35 per cent, the New Democrats at 30 per cent and the Liberals at 22 per cent.

I've had so many people email me from Quebec ridings saying they have no idea why the media believe that the Bloc will be trounced. They are still the favourite in their home ridings.

I am now more afraid than ever that vote splitting is only going to give us years and years of Harper.

No one is going to be willing to call another election after this fiasco, that started off so well.

I really thought we had a shot. Feeling far less sure now by the minute.

Seat projections show the Bloc at 43. The Liberals and NDP together 121. They would need the support of the Bloc for a coalition and we all know how that will play out.

If I find out that the pollsters fabricated this whole thing, I'm going to be furious, because this was our last best shot at saving our democracy.