Obama's new job strategy once again includes a "Buy America" clause, specifically stating that unless there are savings of at least 25%, infrastructure projects must use only U.S. materials.
Last time this happened, Harper gave away the farm for a few ears of corn, making him the brunt of jokes. According to Wikileaks, members of the U.S. government involved in the deal would ask "so has he called today? What are we getting now? Ha, ha, ha."
However, after giving them so much last time, what do we have left? I heard that he's offering the Parliament Buildings, the CN Tower and an 8" x 10" autographed picture of himself with Pamela Sue Anderson. (his wall is full) They could just crop out his image.
We have to quit depending on the United States for our economic recovery. They are hurting themselves. We need a Canadian strategy and if this hurts our border security deal (that erases our borders), then maybe there's a God after all.
The Reformers must now be speaking in tongues or something because everything that comes out of their mouths sounds like blah, blah, blah, blah, blah ...
Now we learn that bankruptcies are on the rise and this dim wit Flaherty comes out grinning like an idiot telling us not to worry, be happy. I'd say he should be replaced but the whole damn government needs to be replaced, because sadly he's the best they've got.
OTTAWA – Liberal Finance Critic John McCallum said today’s speech by Minister Flaherty leaves Canada down a deep fiscal hole after wasting the opportunity to invest in Canada’s future economy.
“Never has so much been spent to achieve so little,” said Mr. McCallum. “The Harper Conservatives wasted a historic opportunity to invest in Canada’s future economic growth, and instead chose to waste billions in public funds on advertising, signage and pork-barrel projects to further their political interests ....“
As much as the Reform Conservatives like to brag that Canada is in much better shape than the rest of the world, they may be exaggerating things a bit. Aside from the fact that the Canadian taxpayer is now the largest sub-prime mortgage lender in the world, economists have been crunching the numbers, and the Harper government is going to have to do something soon.
One of the biggest problems is that our revenue has been greatly reduced with tax cuts, and with the ref-Cons still talking Republican, they may not be able to put off the inevitable. They are going to have to raise taxes or else.
I was glad in this article that they also mentioned the problems we are facing with an aging population. Baby Boomers are retiring and will soon be drawing on services they once propped up.
OTTAWA -- Policy makers have reminded us ad nauseam about how well positioned Canada is, vis-à-vis its industrialized peers, in dealing with the global economic downturn because of this country’s sound fiscal framework.
But the country may be reaching a point at which the bragging needs to cool down.
Sure, Canada’s record on public finance looks better than the United States and Europe, measured on a debt-to-GDP basis. Still, some analysts are beginning to wonder whether this fiscal advantage is at risk as budget balances, at the federal level and in some provinces, have deteriorated faster than expected.
The impact is already being felt, with Standard & Poor’s Rating Services cutting Ontario’s credit rating one notch, based on the “sharp deterioration” in that province’s fiscal framework. As a result, Ontario -- set to post nearly $72-billion in deficits over the next four years -- will face higher borrowing costs to finance its growing debt.
“Perhaps the advantage is not as big as many had thought just a few months ago,” said Derek Burleton, senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, who has written about the pending fiscal restraint Canada faces.
Aveny Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, said policy makers might be overstating the so-called fiscal advantage over the United States, which is now recording annual deficits in the trillion-dollar range -- which, at face value, makes the federal deficit this fiscal year of $56-billion and the combined federal-provincial shortfall of roughly $100-billion sound like a rounding error.
“While we are doing better than the U.S., it is not like we have no problem ahead of us in terms of wrestling the budget balance back into a more sustainable level,” he said. “And like the U.S., we have to remember while the economy is going to be [driven] by stimulus now, it will have to get through a period of restraint ahead.”
Analysts such as Mr. Burleton note that relative to GDP, the overall deficit (at 6%) and debt (64%) for this fiscal year -- fuelled by the recession and stimulus spending -- will still fall short of levels hit in the mid-1990s, or 9% and 102% respectively.
“And we are a long way off from anything the U.S. is facing,” Mr. Burleton added, noting the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is set to surpass the 100% level in the next few years.
But as Mr. Burleton has written, governments face tough choices once their stimulus programs come to an end. Mark Carney, the Bank of Canada governor, said this week legislators face “difficult decisions,” as governments will need healthier cash flows to meet the demands of an ageing population -- which will ultimately demand more health care and the old-age benefits they believe they are entitled to.
Of concern to analysts such as Mr. Shenfeld is the hit Canada has taken to nominal GDP, which is essentially the tax base from which governments get revenue. As of the second quarter, nominal GDP was down 7.4% in Canada, as opposed to 2.7% in the United States. Meanwhile, in terms of real GDP, which is adjusted for inflation, the peak-to-trough drop was 3.8% in the United States, compared with an estimate of 3.3% for Canada. (August GDP for Canada is set for release Friday morning, whereas U.S. GDP grew in the third quarter an estimated 3.5%, marking an official end to its recession.)
Canada’s nominal GDP growth skyrocketed prior to the crisis based on the great upswing in commodity prices. Mr. Shenfeld warned it could take years to recover to such highs.
“Progress could take some time, given how high those commodity peaks were. And we may have set government spending [in motion] based on the view that kind of money would roll in forever. In the interim, we have a large hole to fill.”
We learned this week from Canada's Parliamentary Budget officer that if this government doesn't curb their spending and raise taxes, especially the GST; this country is going to be in serious trouble.
George Bush's theory of economic bliss, failed and it failed miserably. It's time we move on, and bring back a little fiscal responsibility.
While in Italy at the G8 Summit, Stephen Harper couldn't wait to throw his two cents in, and that was about all it was worth.
With intellect and diplomacy, he mustered his best grasp of the English language and called Kevin Page's predictions 'dumb'.... 'dumb'???? What is he, six?
Mr. Page is an officer of the Government of Canada, and the best our Prime Minister can do is critique his predictions and recommendations, as 'DUMB'!!!
Prime Minister Stephen Harper said in Italy on Friday he won't follow the "dumb" advice from Parliament's budget officer by raising taxes to balance Canada's post-recession books.
We will not start raising taxes and cutting programs. That's a very dumb policy and, to the extent, frankly, that the parliamentary budget officer suggested it, it's a dumb position," he said.
I was reading the press announcement, when not long ago the Conservatives were touting his expertise, selling him as the jewel in the crown of their (non-existent) Accountability Act. Yet today he is just DUMB??
Mr. Page is highly qualified for this position. He is no stranger to the federal budget. In his 25-year career as a public servant, he has worked on fiscal forecasting, policy and expenditure portfolios for three key departments: the Department of Finance, the Privy Council Office and the Treasury Board. He also has experience in farm financial programs.
Like Stephen Harper, Kevin Page has a Masters in Economics, but unlike Stephen Harper, he has 25 years working as an economist. Harper has not worked in his profession for one single day. Before entering politics Jim Flaherty was a personal injuries lawyer. So who's dumb and dumber here?
OTTAWA – Canada could shed a total of 1.2 million jobs this year and next, the parliamentary budget watchdog predicts. Suggesting that Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government has vastly underestimated the impact of the economic recession, Kevin Page says the employment picture is much worse than the federal Conservatives predicted in the January budget.
Page also says the Harper government's claim that it will be able to stop running annual budget deficits in five years cannot be believed. He says that in 2013-14, instead of balancing its books, Ottawa will still run a $16.7 billion deficit, according to those who have seen the independent budget officer's latest findings.
The cumulative federal budget deficit over five years will hit $155.9 billion, Page forecasts. Based on recent government estimates, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's calculations call for a cumulative deficit of only about $100 billion over five years.
Page, appointed parliamentary budget officer last year, has consistently produced economic forecasts that have proven more accurate than those from Flaherty and private-sector economists.
The latest report has been provided to the House of Commons finance committee and will be made public later this week.
In it, Page says the medium-term outlook for employment is "significantly weaker" than predicted in Flaherty's Jan. 27 budget. Conservative MP Ted Menzies, Flaherty's parliamentary secretary, said the government has acknowledged that unemployment is going to get worse.
"Anyone can guess at what the unemployment numbers are going to be," he said.
Menzies (Macleod) also said that Page's deficit projection failed to take account of possible billions of dollars in savings on government programs or extra revenue from the sale of major Crown assets. (The Harper government will be subsidizing buyers, and the buildings they already sold, we needed, so are now leasing them back. There will be little or no revenue.)
Page's report says unemployment, currently at 8.4 per cent, will average 8.7 per cent this year, compared with Flaherty's estimate of 7.5 per cent for 2009. Page sees the jobless rate going as high as 9.4 per cent in 2010. Based on the government's forecast, Canada stands to lose 160,000 jobs in 2009. But Page says the worse-than-predicted employment picture means that actual total job losses in 2009 could go as high as 530,000.
For 2010, the government's forecast of 7.7 per cent unemployment suggests about 200,000 jobs could disappear. But Page says job losses next year could be as high as 700,000.
Liberal MP John McKay (Scarborough-Guildwood) said Page's latest report proves the Conservatives are dreaming when they claim the government can quickly return to balanced books in a few years.
"This is a structural deficit, no ifs, ands or buts about it," McKay said.
