Pundits, Polls and Protests. How the Media Has it so Wrong

I've posted often about the illegitimacy of polls that attempt to predict the results of a mythical election. Most are spun and contrived and at the end of the day, mean very little until the writ is dropped and the campaigning begins.

I read the book, The Newsmongers: How the Media Distort the Political News, By Mary Anne Comber and Robert S. Mayne, and though written in 1986, before the rightward migration of our press, there are many observations that still apply today.

And the course that was written of twenty-five years ago, may have reached the end, with polling firms becoming obsolete. Because their "results" fail to capture the public mood.

Stephen Harper has many unresolved issues and while he has been able to put them on the back burner, focusing on his re-election by spending hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars on self-promotion ads, the big issues are still with us. He has managed to duck everyone of these, by avoiding the media and thereby avoiding us. But we will raise them during the campaign.

At or near the top of the list are the two prorogations for his personal benefit. One to avoid a coalition takeover and the other to avoid having to answer questions as to what he knew and when, about torture in Afghanistan.

Another is the attacks on peaceful protesters and journalists during the G-20 weekend in Toronto. He was behind the decision to hold it there, and it was he who gave out a massive contract to a foreign company to handle security.

Then of course there are all of the little things, that are far from little. The purchase of fighter jets deemed unfit by every other country but Canada and Israel. The corporate tax cuts despite the fact that an overwhelming majority of Canadians are opposed to them. The waste of tax dollars on signs and TV spots. Billions for prison expansion when our crime rate is the lowest in our history. The hostile takeovers of arms length agencies. Fox News North. Avoiding the media and thereby avoiding us.

The list goes on.

There is an excellent indepth piece in the Winnipeg Free Press: Pollsters advise voters to be wary of polls ahead of possible spring vote

Canada's notoriously competitive pollsters have some surprisingly uniform advice about the parade of confusing and conflicting numbers they're about to toss at voters ahead of a possible spring election: Take political horse race polls with a small boulder of salt.

"Pay attention if you want to but, frankly, they don't really mean anything," sums up Andre Turcotte, a pollster and communications professor at Carleton University. He has even more pointed advice for news organizations that breathlessly report minor fluctuations in polling numbers: "You should really consider what is the basis for your addiction and maybe enter a ten-step program."

Have you been reading Eric Grenier's nonsense? It's like watching an episode of the Keystone Cops. His meanderings tickle the funny bone, just before you roll your eyes in disbelief. Poor boy. He does try, though his bias is overwhelming.

Social media is where it's at now. The right-wing media and the high priced pollsters have spun themselves out. We no longer listen to them, but instead listen to us.

Why Eric Grenier Needs a History Lesson

Eric Grenier had a column in the Globe and Mail: Liberals poised for gains, but not government, in make-or-break battle

Depending on the outcome, Michael Ignatieff’s first kick at the electoral can could be his last. Though the Liberal Party is arguably better equipped and positioned to fight the next election than it was under Stéphane Dion, it will take a significant shift in public opinion to bump the Grits out of the opposition benches and into government.

Grenier's naivete can only be the result of inexperience. I'm not familiar with Grenier who may have hit the scene when the Globe decided to change their format from news to entertainment.

Because of this I'll go easy. So sit down Mr. Grenier because I'm going to give you a history lesson.

In the spring of 2005, the Conservative Party was in a bit of trouble. Stephen Harper's opponent during the leadership race had been an intelligent and popular young woman named Belinda Stronach, who represented the progressive side of the new party. A Red Tory.

But Stephen Harper suggested that the term 'progressive conservative' was an oxymoron, and that he would be taking the party in a new direction. He had already sent Scott Brison adrift because he was openly gay, telling him that this was a party of social conservatives, so there would be no place for him.

But Belinda continued to raise social justice issues until finally one day in May, Stephen Harper called her into his office and read her the riot act, telling her that she was "far too ambitious". Visibly shaken she left Harper's office and began to contemplate her future with the party.

The biggest divide was over healthcare.

Despite widespread defence of the Canadian Healthcare System and past polling that makes it clear that the vast majority of Canadians prefer to have their healthcare paid for by the government, Stephen Harper made a bold promise on May 8th, 2005: He promised that if he was elected Prime Minister of Canada, one of the first things on his agenda would be to privatize the Canadian Healthcare System.

... and so, in the effort to spur on the hopes of an early election, Harper and the Conservatives have started unveiling their election promises and eagerly waiting like wolves for the collapse of the Liberal Party. But it doesn't seem to be happening. Instead a high-ranking Conservative Party member, Belinda Stronach, has defected to the Liberal Party, saying she disagrees with Stephen Harper on the issue of healthcare & the budget and that she would rather join the Liberals than "help Harper destroy the best healthcare system in the world".

Stephen Harper learned the hard way that 'promising' to privatize our healthcare did not sit well with voters, so he dropped it from the platform, but not from his plans. In fact, we have now slipped to last place in terms of our quality of care, and yet he has not given us anything toward fixing it. Instead we are getting tax cuts for the rich, defective fighter planes and more prisons.

Another issue was Harper's stance on gay rights. He had joined forces with the American James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family, who had paid for radio spots to help with Harper's anti-gay comedy tour. The media found the whole thing quite funny, as the above political cartoon suggests.

Are you with me so far Mr. Grenier? This gives you some idea of why Canadians have never really trusted your new hero.

History Lesson Part Two

In June of 2005, the anti-healthcare, anti-gay rights tour was not going as planned.

... longtime Ontario Cabinet Minister and two-time provincial leadership contender Jim Flaherty may well be positioning himself for an early opportunity to unseat Stephen Harper, the disappointing Conservative Party incumbent, increasingly seen as a lame duck leader who’s political capital may well have expired .... Sources tell Bourque that failed retail heiress Nicky Eaton hosted a swish gathering at her country estate in Caledon for Flaherty’s intimates to discuss a bid for Harper’s job. Present and accounted for included Tony Clement... (1)

And your own Globe and Mail was reporting that

Political knives are out for Stephen Harper as his federal Conservatives sink deeper in the polls, and the sharpest weapons are being brandished by members of his own party. “There is a lot of discontent with the turn of things. People are saying it’s time to replace the leader,” said one key Conservative organizer in Toronto who, like many others, asked not to be named because it could hurt his status in the party. ... a recent poll puts the Conservatives eight percentage points behind the Liberals and suggests that six in 10 Canadians have a negative view of Mr. Harper ... (2)

And in November, when the Martin government finally fell, the Liberals had a solid ten point lead. If Stephen Harper had listened to someone like you, he may not have been in such a hurry for an election. But he knew what most of us know. Polls outside of an election are about as useful as a comb to Telly Savalas.

And another bit of advice Mr. Grenier. Jane Taber is the Harper groupie at the Globe. Be careful, or she may scratch your eyes out.

Sources:

1. Flaherty Plotting to Overthrow Harper? Bourque Newswatch, June 13, 2005

2. Stephen Harper: On His Way Out?, Globe and Mail, June 14, 2005