Sunday, July 26, 2015

Dancing Around the Polls Will Only Make You Dizzy

The news this week was of two recently published polls. One was conducted by Forum Research and the other by Mainstreet Research; with completely different results.

Forum shows some drop in support for the NDP but has them forming a minority government. Mainstreet, on the other hand, shows a huge surge by the Conservatives, with them in majority territory, and too close to call for the opposition.

Tracking social media, comments are all over the place, depending on your political drug of choice.

Let's look at the Mainstreet Poll to the right, which has become a real bone of contention.

Liberal supporters are happy that they are gaining on the NDP, but naturally terrified that Harper could get another majority.

NDP supporters, understandably, are in a complete tither.

While they fed off the euphoria of polls conducted prior to this, they are now up in arms, attacking Postmedia and the little known firm Mainstreet.

Some say it's run by a Liberal, others say a Conservative.

Over on Rabble, David Climenhaga is blaming Postmedia, even going so far as to ask why they only published the results of one poll.

It's nonsense of course, because they commissioned the poll, and most newspapers only publish the poll they paid for, when they commission it. An opinion piece might delve into more.

Since the boost to the Conservatives is being attributed to the Universal Child Care cheques that went out this week, Climenhaga also finds this to be bogus.
... on Monday and Tuesday when the poll was taken, virtually no parent in Canada had received their Universal Child Care Benefit cheque. The first ones started showing up in mailboxes in most parts of Canada on Wednesday. I'm just saying.
He might be right about when the cheques appeared in mailboxes, but notifications showing the amount you would receive, were sent out the week before.  Also, many if not most, were direct deposit  My grandson's was in the bank on the 20th.

If we question Postmedia's poll, it would be why they wanted it conducted on the day and day after, the windfall, before the revelations that it's not such a windfall after all.

Besides, those cheques won't drive people to the polls on election day, the only polls that really matter.

So Who and What is Mainstreet Research?

Back to the NDP accusations that it is run by a Liberal or a Conservative.  I visited my friend Mr. Google, and it would appear that they are neither.

Besides conducting polls, they work on campaigns, mostly at the municipal level.

They have been advisers to the Alberta Conservative Party and ran the campaigns of at least two Liberals. They wrote favorably of Rachel Notley, and predicted her majority four days before the Alberta election. They were also the first to suggest that she had won the leaders debate.

As to being right-wing, they have several unions as clients, instructing them on how to get their message out and how to become more political.

What other polls do show this week, is that the Liberals are holding or gaining ground, and NDP support is dropping, with divided gains.

I read them for amusement but the only pollsters I trust are Wiarton Willie and Shubenacadie Sam, who by the way also had conflicting predictions this year.  Sammy won.

Although I did hear a rumour that Willie was a CPC operative and Sam once worked for Jean Chretien.

I'm just saying .....

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