While seat projections reveal no real surge for the NDP, headlines surrounding the most recent Nanos Poll suggests that Tories lead by 13 points, Grits and NDP statistically tied Scares the crap out of you right? Vote-splitting destined to give Harper a possible majority.
But wait a minute. What's this on page two?
Margin of Error (19 times out of 20)
Atlantic ±10.3
Quebec ±6.5
Ontario ±5.7
Prairies ±6.9
British Columbia ±8.1
What the .... ?
So the numbers, given that they are plus or minus, could be off by anywhere from 11.4 to a whopping 20.6
This election is all about region, with so many grassroots movements, youth voting mobs and strategic voting.
So let's break down the regions that are important. Alberta will go Conservative no matter what. And despite suggestions to the contrary, I still think the Bloc will continue to dominate Quebec.
Ontario with a 5.7 plus or minus means that the Cons range from about 28 to 50. Liberals from about 20 to 42. And NDP about 14.5 to 36.
So what do these Numbers really mean?
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!
This is by far the most fraudulent poll I've ever seen. How is Nanos getting away with this? This is election fraud because there is a definite move here to engineer our votes.
I read a piece from Simon Fraser University (can't find it now) but they also discuss the inaccuracies of polls, based on the questions asked. Nanos they say will only ask who the caller is voting for, without providing all political options. This means that many forget about the Green Party, only thinking in terms of the three major parties, Conservatives, Liberals and NDP.
Others provide options but for those undecided, they will try to pry an answer by giving a bit of policy and then base their results on where the caller's answers place them. Not their voting intention.
So again be wary of polls. They range from inaccurate, or in the case of Nanos, seemingly fraudulent. Go with your gut. Vote and vote wisely.
Also be wary of 'strategic' voting sites. I name Project Democracy as one example, but there are many others. They all rely on polling data. However, as pollsters have been forced to admit, they're challenged to capture anyone who hasn't a landline - which is the case for vast majority of youth and, increasingly, large pockets of the middle class.
ReplyDeleteFrankly, I think polling should be outlawed during elections, be they local, provincial or federal. Given polling organizations' house bias, they're just another form of advertising but one that doesn't have to register with elections agencies or figure in political parties' reporting to those agencies.
You're right. People need to focus on their own riding. You can get a feel for who is the lead and whio is in the best position to take down the Conservatives. You don't really need the polls at all.
ReplyDeleteThe best poll out there is the UBC"s Sauder School of Business predictive stock market. Participants in it use their own money and when you have skin in the game you tend to 'vote' with logic and not emotionally. Right now in their majority market the money seems to be on a Consertave minority government.
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