Surprise, Surprise. Democracy Matters

The two key issues this election are democracy and getting rid of our autocratic prime minister.

And Gloria Galloway in the Globe confirms this. On the Internet, it’s anybody but Harper

Polls continue to suggest a climb for the NDP, but there appears to be few, if any, seats they can take in Ontario or Quebec. This means possible gains in the West, their home base, but I'm afraid that in the two key provinces, they will only further split the vote and possibly give Harper his majority.

In fact, I'll bet the Conservatives are counting on this.

Damn pollsters and their games.

However, locally, most people know who is the strongest contender to the Conservatives, so hopefully that will impact the vote.

The latest Nanos results still have an unusually high margin of error, suggesting that like us, they really have no idea what's going on.

This election will be decided by us, not them. And us wants Harper gone.

Conservative Law and Order Agenda Tough on Victims

By now most of us know that Harper's law and order agenda is misguided at best, dangerous at worst.

But his constant use of the term 'victims' has many 'victims' angry over being used as props.

When the Conservative government created the Office of the Federal Ombudsman for Victims of Crime four years ago, it said the watchdog would promote access to programs, explore systemic issues and make sure Ottawa met its commitments to victims. None of that can happen if the justice minister keeps the office’s annual reports under wraps. Sullivan says he filed his 2008 and 2009 reports before his three-year term ended last April but they have yet to be made public by the government.

And what does it say that the highlight of office’s work is getting the Conservative government to invest $5 million to fund centres for children who have been victims of abuse at a time when it was happily committing taxpayers to spending billions of dollars to house more inmates in ever more prison cells? It suggests the Conservatives are more interested in using victims as props in their ongoing drive to impose expensive and unnecessary anti-crime bills on Canadians than helping those victims through better services and programs.

One more reason to throw the bums out.

Harper Trading Cancer for Votes

In a shameful bid for votes Harper is endorsing Canada's asbestos industry. My brother-in-law died from Asbestosis, one of the worst forms of lung cancer, because of exposure. We should be banning it, not promoting it, and certainly not exporting death.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has just set a new low in trolling for votes, with a shamelessly self-serving campaign stop in Asbestos, Que., home to one of the country’s most notorious exports.

In Ottawa the Conservatives may be stripping asbestos from Parliament, Harper’s official residence and other public buildings as a health hazard. But Harper is only too eager to court rural Quebec voters by extolling Canada’s role in a dirty industry that ships the mineral to developing countries, where it can cause deadly lung diseases including cancer if not properly handled.

Just how low can this man go?

So Who Didn't Want an Election?

Stephen Harper and the Conservative talking points, sure have this one wrong, when they claim that Canadians didn't want this election. Over 2 million votes were cast in the advance polls, which could be bad news for Harper, whose success depends on our tuning out and turning off.

I think this election will be one of the most exciting on record. I don't see a real sweep for anyone. Some of the pollsters and pundits in their hype are predicting a replay of the major success stories of John Diefenbaker and Brian Mulroney.

But we didn't have as many major parties then to split the vote.

And if the Bloc is on the ropes, it's difficult to predict who would gain. According to Andrew Steele in the Globe, the NDP don't have many quality candidates in the province.

The challenge for the Liberals this election is getting the 800,000 faithfuls who stayed home in 2008, to get out to vote, and I think they will do that. Because despite the questionable national polls, Michael Ignatieff is packing them in.

This election will be determined riding by riding, with the only national commitment to get rid of Stephen Harper, or at least hold him to a minority, though I don't think that will help. He needs a clear loss.

The Hill Times is reporting that there are as many as 95 close calls across the country. And regional polling is not showing the same as the national polls.

Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, also said polling has been mostly stagnant. With the exception of Mr. Layton in Quebec [margin of error 6.4], polling shows the Conservatives still dominate in the Prairies, and the Liberals have been holding steady in Ontario after initial Tory gains.

However, while they are suggesting little will change, a high voter turnout could very well change everything.

And we have to look at some of the pollsters weighing in. Summa Strategies vice-president Tim Powers is a Conservative insider, and David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, is a colleague of Tom Flanagan's.

I wouldn't put too much weight on anything they say.

The anticipated high voter turn out and youth participation, will be the game changer. And if this doesn't split the vote, the Conservatives could be in trouble.

Cheryl Gallant is struggling in her riding of Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke. Dean Del Mastro and his brother have waged a war against constituents in Peterborough, coming across as bullies.

In the Ontario riding of Brampton-Springdale, where Conservative Party candidate Parm Gill is running against Ruby Dhallah, there are charges of inappropriate access to Immigration Minister Jason Kenney, and even the possibility that Gill, a private investigator, is selling visas for votes.

Former prime minister Joe Clark is backing Liberal Scott Brison, not that Brison's seat is really vulnerable, but it is a reminder that Harper's party is not the same as the historic Conservative Party that folded in 2003.

And while it would appear that the hype over the NDP surge has drowned out the debate on healthcare, that is still prominent on people's minds.

Few pollsters are paying attention to the Green Party, and I think they are about to make a breakthrough. Elizabeth May is in front in Saanich-Gulf Islands, and the Green platform will appeal to young voters. It may not be a splash, but I think we'll see a few Green MPs this time. Hopefully.

But there is one very important factor that is being missed. The determination of the Canadian people to get rid of Stephen Harper. The fact that his candidates are not showing up at debates and avoiding the media, only shows further contempt for Canadians.

If I had to make a prediction I would say that we could be looking at a Liberal minority, with a stronger NDP presence. The Bloc about the same, perhaps a bit diminished, and 3 or 4 Green MPs.

Hey, I can't be any further off than Nik Nanos. I just have to say with "a margin of error" requiring all fingers and a few toes, and I'm covered.

But in another prediction, where I'll be spot on, is that this election is going to be very exciting and yes, unpredictable.

The NDP and the Quebec Question

The latest trendline from Nanos shows the following in Quebec:

Conservatives - 14.1
Liberals - 22.0
NDP - 30.2
Bloc - 27.4

But there is a margin of error plus or minus 6.4 meaning the above could be off by as much as 12.8

So Conservatives range from 1.3 to 26.5
Liberals 9.2 to 34.6
NDP from 17.4 to 43
Bloc 14.6 to 40.2

And despite this, the talk is that the NDP could make enormous strides in the province. Good for them if they do. But it has also made the race between Layton and Harper. A race that Harper could win given some of the candidates running for the NDP.

... the kind of people about to head to Ottawa may surprise potential NDP voters in Quebec and the rest of the country.
For instance, Lawrence Cannon’s seat in Pontiac is the kind the NDP can win if these numbers hold. The candidate there is Mathieu Ravignat, who ran for the Communist Party in 1997. A moving story in the Montreal Mirror describes the young Mr. Ravignat and his commitment to Communism, weeping over the seizure of the party’s book collection along with its other assets after failing to field enough candidates to retain official status in 1993.

Alexandre Boulerice, the NDP candidate in Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie remains an “independentiste,” and continues to be a member of Quebec Solidaire, a provincial sovereigntist party.

The Conservatives will be all over this.

In a few ridings, the candidates are simple placeholders. Reporters have been unable to contact the NDP candidates in Bas-Richelieu–Nicolet–Bécancour and in St-Maurice-Champlain. Of one NDP candidate, local media wrote: “Other than knowing she is 71 years old, we don’t know even where she resides.” ...Others work and live at the other end of the province from the riding they may represent.

What in the hell has the media done? By trumping up the national polls they failed to look into who the NDP had running in Quebec. Few with a hope in hell of winning, and if they did, may not even realize they were running.

In Ontario the NDP is at about 17. Or not. Margin of error 5.4.

Unbelievable.

Could Project Democracy Change the Political Landscape in Alberta?

The above image is one of the ads placed by Unseat Harper/Canadians Rallying to Unseat Harper/Voices for Democracy.

There are so many citizens groups working behind the scenes to oust Harper. We have to fight the media and the pollsters, but we're not giving up.

The latest Nanos poll, when you factor in their margin of error have the Liberals ahead in Ontario, or the Conservatives ahead in Ontario. The Libs could lead the Cons by 3.5 points or the NDP by 34.6.

Or the NDP and Conservatives could be in a statistical tie. Any thing's possible, and indeed it will be this election.

But how easy will it be in Alberta? Reform Party territory.

I think Linda Duncan has a good chance of holding onto her seat. At least I hope so. But ousting Peter Goldring or Laurie Hawn, may be tough.

But Project Democracy will go the distance in the Edmonton area.

Ordinary Canadians fighting to save our country. It doesn't get any better than that.

The "Coalition" Did Not Halt the G-8 Report. The NDP Did

News today is that Avaaz is going to the federal courts to have the G-8 Spending report released before the election.

Harper is saying that the "coalition" caused the delay but the fact is, we could have seen that report if it hadn't been for the NDP.

They were the ones who delayed the report until after the election. Why? What's in it for them?

Maybe that's who they should be suing.